I don’t know ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
After the uncertainty that inflation, layoffs, global conflict, and an endless election season brought to the last 12 – 14 months, I hoped (wished) for increased clarity post-election.
Listening to the agency owners I’m in touch with, we haven’t found that, and some are giving up the idea that we will feel like the geopolitical, economic, and social landscapes will settle. There are just too many overlapping challenges creating all kinds of unpredictable situations.
If that’s the case, how do we lead in an uncertain environment?
About a year ago, I came across the Cynefin model, which outlines decision-making models for different information environments.
In a Simple Environment
- There are clear cause-and-effect relationships.
- Solutions are obvious and easily implemented.
- Example: Following a standard procedure like website backup.
In a Complicated Environment
- Cause-and-effect relationships exist but require analysis.
- Solutions need expertise or investigation.
- Example: Conducting client discovery and developing recommendations.
In a Complex Environment
- Unpredictable outcomes and emergent patterns.
- Solutions are found through experimentation and iteration.
- Example: Creative problem-solving with unclear end goals.
In a Chaotic Environment
- No discernible cause-and-effect relationships.
- Rapid, decisive action is needed to establish order.
- Example: Managing a project in crisis with unforeseen complications.
In this model, it feels like we’re living somewhere between a complex and chaotic environment. If that’s true, running experiments to discover what’s working now gives us some data to uncover a way forward. Running our business like it’s 2021 is perilous!
What worked in the past might be out the window–or we might come back to it–but in the meantime, discover what’s working and do more of that!
What are the questions you are holding right now? What experiments could you create or research could you conduct that could illuminate answers to those questions?
P.S. Getting good at forming, executing, and interpreting these low-cost experiments might be a skill your clients would buy from you. 🤔
